Forecasting for a complex world
Metaculus offers trustworthy forecasting and modeling infrastructure for forecasters, decision makers, and the public.Focus Areas
We create forecasts and advance research, decision making, and policy in four main topic areas.
biosecurity
Improving global health by understanding infectious diseases and preparing for future pandemicsSee ForecastsAI progress
Exploring the future of artificial intelligence technologies and the impacts to societySee Forecastsnuclear security
Quantifying global risks to keep us safe and secure for a flourishing futureSee Forecastsclimate change
Predicting long-term shifts in temperature and weather patterns caused by human activitySee ForecastsForecasting Tournaments
Join our tournaments and predict real world events, timelines, and impacts and win prizes for accuracy.
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q2
POTUS Predictions
Fiscal Showdown 2025
Kiko Llaneras Tournament 🔮
Research & Updates
Our partners use Metaculus forecasts to gain insight into complex challenges and decisions.
Threshold 2030: 30 economists & AI policy experts forecast AI's economic impact
Exploring AI's Economic Future: What Experts Predict for 2030 In October we brought together econom...
Q4 AI Benchmarking: Bots Are Closing The Gap
By Tom Liptay, Molly Hickman, and Ben Wilson. In Q4 we ran the second tournament in the AI Benchmar...
The State of Metaculus
The Metaculus of early 2025 is a different and better place in myriad ways than the Metaculus of a y...
Announcing Indexes: Big Questions, Quantified
The most important questions in forecasting tend to resist precise definitions — questions like, “Wi...
Engage with Metaculus
Learn how you can partner with Metaculus to host a forecasting tournament, collaborate on forecasting research, hire our Pro Forecasters for custom projects, or set up a private forecasting space for your organization.
We love working with non-profits in our core focus areas. If you’re a non-profit seeking forecasting and modeling capacity or are interested in collaborating on a grant, please reach out!