Question

When will a permanent human settlement stay 1 year on the Moon?

8 comments8

Total Forecasters68

Community Prediction

Oct 2040

(Apr 2036 - Oct 2045)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>Jan 2050
community	Apr 2036	Oct 2040	Oct 2045	14.0%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	Apr 2036	—
median	Oct 2040	—
upper 75%	Oct 2045	—
Upper bound
>Jan 2050	14.0%	—

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Authors:

Kostas

Opened:

May 30, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2049

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 1, 2022

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

0.1%

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

2.37

By what year will there be a permanently inhabited lunar base with at least five crew members, operational for six consecutive months?

Apr 2038

Authors:

Kostas

Opened:

May 30, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2049

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 1, 2022

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

0.1%

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

2.37

By what year will there be a permanently inhabited lunar base with at least five crew members, operational for six consecutive months?

Apr 2038