121 forecasters

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

75%chance

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Authors:

Opened:

Aug 14, 2022

Closes:

Dec 30, 2040

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2041

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 16, 2022

Iran has no path to producing weapons-grade uranium for first time in 15 years after Trump strikes: experts

New York Post•Sep 9, 2025

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