Question

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

127 comments127

Total Forecasters1154

Community Prediction

24 Aug 2025

(03 Jul 2025 01:44 - 09 Nov 2025)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>15 May 2026
community	03 Jul 2025 01:44	24 Aug 2025	09 Nov 2025	5.5%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	03 Jul 2025 01:44	—
median	24 Aug 2025	—
upper 75%	09 Nov 2025	—
Upper bound
>15 May 2026	5.5%	—

Authors:

H559

Opened:

Mar 15, 2023

Closes:

May 14, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

May 15, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 16, 2023

Business of AI

Effective Institutions Project

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

ChatGPT: Everything you need to know about the AI chatbot

TechCrunch•Jul 1, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?

29 Aug 2025

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?

22 May 2029

Will OpenAI announce a GPT-5 AI model in 2025?

99.5%