Group

Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026?

15 forecasters

Deny some entities

Deny ≤99 countries

Deny ≥100 countries

Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing

Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing

Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing

Restriction scope		My Prediction		Me
Deny some entities	87%

Deny ≤99 countries	50%

Deny ≥100 countries	11%

Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing	5%

Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing	2%

Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing	2%

Deny all, secret or no new licenses	1%