Question

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters71

Community Prediction

41%

(21% - 57%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 41%

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

dschwarz

Opened:

Jun 7, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 9, 2023

Regulation of AI

Politics

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

The Senate's blocking of a risky AI provision was the right move

MSNBC•Jul 3, 2025

Today’s AI Could Make Pandemics 5 Times More Likely

Time•Jul 1, 2025

Senate Shoots Down 10-Year Ban on State AI Regulations

•Jul 2, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?

85%

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

15%

Will global-catastrophic-risk-focused evaluation of certain AI systems by accredited bodies become mandatory in the US before 2035?

54%

Authors:

dschwarz

Opened:

Jun 7, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 9, 2023

Regulation of AI

Politics

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

The Senate's blocking of a risky AI provision was the right move

MSNBC•Jul 3, 2025

Today’s AI Could Make Pandemics 5 Times More Likely

Time•Jul 1, 2025

Senate Shoots Down 10-Year Ban on State AI Regulations

•Jul 2, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?

85%

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

15%

Will global-catastrophic-risk-focused evaluation of certain AI systems by accredited bodies become mandatory in the US before 2035?

54%