Question
When will we have transformative AI?
Total Forecasters157
Community Prediction
Sep 2039
(16 Apr 2030 - Aug 2058)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 16 Apr 2030 | — |
| median | Sep 2039 | — |
| upper 75% | Aug 2058 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2100 | 10.0% | — |
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Nov 8, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 11, 2023
Authors:
Opened:Nov 8, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 11, 2023