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55 forecasters
Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?
63%chance
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Authors:
Opened:May 13, 2024
Closes:Dec 30, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:May 16, 2024
Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?
2% chance
253
Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?
1.5% chance
81
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
5% chance
206