47 comments
126 forecasters
Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?
70%chance
4 pp this week
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Authors:
Opened:Jul 5, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 8, 2024
Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?
5% chance
98
Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?
6% chance
60
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?
33% chance
404