Question

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

35 comments35

Total Forecasters173

Community Prediction

(4.3% - 11%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 7%

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Jul 17, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 25, 2024

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Bright Line Watch Tournament

Health & Pandemics

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Tracking Bird Flu Through Poop In Places No One’s Looking

Forbes•Jun 28, 2025

Measles outbreak in US has 'hit a plateau,' CDC says

USA Today•Jun 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

144

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

66%