397 forecasters

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

1%chance

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Authors:

Opened:

Dec 20, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 25, 2024

Artificial Intelligence

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Silicon Valley bets big on ‘environments’ to train AI agents

TechCrunch•Sep 17, 2025

Forget woke chatbots — an AI researcher says the real danger is an AI that doesn't care if we live or die

Business Insider•Sep 16, 2025

‘I have to do it’: Why one of the world’s most brilliant AI scientists left the US for China

Guardian•Sep 16, 2025

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