23 comments
81 forecasters
Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?
1.5%chance
1.3 pp this week
Forecast Timeline
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Dec 12, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 14, 2024
Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?
2% chance
253
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
1% chance
97
Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?
63% chance
55