Question
Will real-money betting on Polymarket or Manifold become legal in the United States in 2025?
Total Forecasters1145
Community Prediction
28%
(20% - 40%)
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 10, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 1, 2025
Will federal legislation be passed before the 2026 midterm elections offering immunity to banks providing financial services to legal marijuana businesses?
10%
Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?
15%
Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?
69%
Authors:
Opened:Jan 10, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 1, 2025
Will federal legislation be passed before the 2026 midterm elections offering immunity to banks providing financial services to legal marijuana businesses?
10%
Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?
15%
Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?
69%