Question
When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?
Total Forecasters370
Community Prediction
Mar 2044
(Sep 2036 - Oct 2056)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | Sep 2036 | — |
| median | Mar 2044 | — |
| upper 75% | Oct 2056 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2100 | 6.2% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 23, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 25, 2020
Authors:
Opened:Jan 23, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 25, 2020