Question

What percentage of AI computational performance will be located in the United States on January 1, 2028?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters21

Community Prediction

68%

(59.6% - 75.6%)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

	<30%	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	2.1%	59.63%	67.98%	75.6%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<30%	2.1%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	59.63%	—
median	67.98%	—
upper 75%	75.6%	—

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

ADQ

Opened:

Jun 11, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 1, 2028

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 31, 2027

AI 2027

Technology

Artificial Intelligence

Sleeping Giants: The A.I. Power Centers No One Is Talking About (Yet)

Observer (NY)•Jun 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will the highest percentage of overall compute capacity held by a single organisation be on January 1, 2028?

21.7

On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?

3.1×10²⁵

What percentage of Americans will consider AI or advancement of computers/technology to be the most important problem in January 2028?

8.51

Authors:

ADQ

Opened:

Jun 11, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 1, 2028

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 31, 2027

AI 2027

Technology

Artificial Intelligence

Sleeping Giants: The A.I. Power Centers No One Is Talking About (Yet)

Observer (NY)•Jun 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will the highest percentage of overall compute capacity held by a single organisation be on January 1, 2028?

21.7

On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?

3.1×10²⁵

What percentage of Americans will consider AI or advancement of computers/technology to be the most important problem in January 2028?

8.51