Question

Will the United States government have formal veto power on the deployment of frontier AI before 2028?

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Total Forecasters23

Community Prediction

10%

(7% - 20%)

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50%

community: 10%

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Authors:

ADQ

Opened:

Jun 11, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2027

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 31, 2027

AI 2027

Law

Politics

Artificial Intelligence

Senate Shoots Down 10-Year Ban on State AI Regulations

•Jul 2, 2025

Senate Overwhelmingly Rejects AI Regulation Moratorium

•Jul 2, 2025

Congress might block state AI laws for five years — here’s what it means

TechCrunch•Jun 30, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US government take control of any US AI company or project before 2029?

17%

Will the US government mandate security clearance from the employees that lead the research and development of the top models at OpenAI, Deepmind, or Anthropic before 2028?

38%

Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?

25%

Authors:

ADQ

Opened:

Jun 11, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2027

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 31, 2027

AI 2027

Law

Politics

Artificial Intelligence

Senate Shoots Down 10-Year Ban on State AI Regulations

•Jul 2, 2025

Senate Overwhelmingly Rejects AI Regulation Moratorium

•Jul 2, 2025

Congress might block state AI laws for five years — here’s what it means

TechCrunch•Jun 30, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US government take control of any US AI company or project before 2029?

17%

Will the US government mandate security clearance from the employees that lead the research and development of the top models at OpenAI, Deepmind, or Anthropic before 2028?

38%

Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?

25%