Question
Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?
Forecast Timeline
Total Forecasters 41
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| Outcome | My Prediction | Me | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gary Marcus win | 77.1% | |||
Nathan Young win | 20.7% | |||
Other | 2.3% | |||
Total: ?
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Mar 1, 2027
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 31, 2026
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?
60%
Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?
85%
Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?
Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Mar 1, 2027
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 31, 2026
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?
60%
Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?
85%