Question
When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?
Total Forecasters89
Community Prediction
16 Oct 2025
(20 Nov 2024 - 11 Dec 2026)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 20 Nov 2024 | — |
| median | 16 Oct 2025 | — |
| upper 75% | 11 Dec 2026 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Dec 2039 | 0.9% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Sep 28, 2020
Closes:Dec 31, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 30, 2020
Authors:
Opened:Sep 28, 2020
Closes:Dec 31, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 30, 2020