Question
When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?
Total Forecasters118
Community Prediction
04 Sep 2029
(17 Sep 2025 - Mar 2037)
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CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <29 Oct 2020 | 4.7% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 17 Sep 2025 | — |
| median | 04 Sep 2029 | — |
| upper 75% | Mar 2037 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2090 | 1.8% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Oct 26, 2020
Closes:Oct 24, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Oct 25, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 28, 2020
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
When will some country do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?
Sep 2047
How good will the best published polygenic score be for intelligence in 2026?
0.256
When will the first human baby be born, whose embryo was polygenically selected from a cohort of at least 50 simultaneously obtained ova?
Oct 2034
Authors:
Opened:Oct 26, 2020
Closes:Oct 24, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Oct 25, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 28, 2020
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
When will some country do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?
Sep 2047
How good will the best published polygenic score be for intelligence in 2026?
0.256
When will the first human baby be born, whose embryo was polygenically selected from a cohort of at least 50 simultaneously obtained ova?
Oct 2034