Question
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
Total Forecasters65
Community Prediction
3.54 years
(-1.03 years - 13.7 years)
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CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <-50 | 4.6% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | -1.025 | — |
| median | 3.541 | — |
| upper 75% | 13.68 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >50 | 5.3% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:May 4, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:May 6, 2021
Authors:
Opened:May 4, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:May 6, 2021