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87 forecasters
Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?
49%chance
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Opened:Sep 29, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 1, 2021
Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?
68.1% chance
140
Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?
4% chance
261
If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?
78% chance
181