Question
If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?
Total Forecasters31
Community Prediction
37%
(15% - 44%)
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Authors:
Opened:Oct 28, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 30, 2021
If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?
4%
If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?
63%
Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?
72%
Authors:
Opened:Oct 28, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 30, 2021
If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?
4%
If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?
63%
Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?
72%