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20 forecasters
If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?
21.9%chance
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Authors:
Opened:Nov 18, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2049
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 20, 2021
If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?
10% chance
18
If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?
Nov 2035
(15 Nov 2028 - Nov 2054)
Nov 2035
(15 Nov 2028 - Nov 2054)
23 forecasters
if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?
46 forecasters