Question
When will China first successfully land people on Mars?
Total Forecasters33
Community Prediction
Jan 2048
(Oct 2041 - Mar 2057)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | Oct 2041 | — |
| median | Jan 2048 | — |
| upper 75% | Mar 2057 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Jan 2070 | 7.6% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Feb 18, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2070
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2070
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 20, 2022
Authors:
Opened:Feb 18, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2070
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2070
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 20, 2022