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📈Market Pulse Q2 Winners: Evidence of Edge

5
1 comment1
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q2

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win77.1%
Nathan Young win20.7%
Other2.3%

Market Pulse 25Q3 Opens: Will Q2’s Edge Hold?

5
no comments0
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?

Forecast revealed in 2 days

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Machine Learning R&D risk levels?

Forecast revealed in 2 days

What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2025-2026 season?

Forecast revealed in 2 days

How many Patriot missile batteries will the U.S. formally agree to send to Ukraine before September 2025?

Key Factor

Few available Patriot systems for Ukraine

090.3%
15.9%
22%
and 2 others

Key Factor

Few available Patriot systems for Ukraine

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

36.8%chance

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

95%chance
3% this week

Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?

Key Factor

Public statements likely due to crisis with Israel

30%chance
10% this week

Key Factor

Public statements likely due to crisis with Israel