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📈Market Pulse Q2 Winners: Evidence of Edge

5
1 comment1
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q2

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win73%
Nathan Young win23.9%
Other3.1%

Market Pulse 25Q3 Opens: Will Q2’s Edge Hold?

5
no comments0
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?

Forecast revealed in 2 days

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

resultYes

What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2025-2026 season?

Forecast revealed in 2 days

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Machine Learning R&D risk levels?

Forecast revealed in 2 days

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

36.8%chance

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

How many Patriot missile batteries will the U.S. formally agree to send to Ukraine before September 2025?

Key Factor

Few available Patriot systems for Ukraine

089.8%
15.2%
23%
and 2 others

Key Factor

Few available Patriot systems for Ukraine

Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?

Key Factor

Public statements likely due to crisis with Israel

28%chance
12% this week

Key Factor

Public statements likely due to crisis with Israel