June 1, 2025 Update: 10 more questions are live. The pre-planned launch phase is now complete; additional questions will open at intervals during the tournament, based on current events.

May 1, 2025 Update: 15 new questions are live. See the tournament structure below for more important dates.

A new US presidential administration often brings hope and optimism to half of the voting populace, and worry and fear to the other half. President Trump’s return to office has been marked by dramatic policy shifts across international aid (USAID), trade and tariff structures, and immigration enforcement, alongside escalating judicial conflicts. For supporters, these changes represent necessary course corrections and a fulfillment of campaign promises. For critics, the same developments raise fundamental concerns about democratic institutions and America’s global standing. For all Americans, these rapid changes create uncertainty about the country’s future direction.

Forecasting can help ground our thinking about the effects of the new administration, quantifying which hopes and fears deserve our attention—and which are merely fantasy. The POTUS Predictions Tournament aims to bring greater clarity to these discussions by translating competing narratives into measurable forecasts.

Tournament Structure & Prizes

This tournament features a $15,000 prize pool divided into two distinct phases:

Midterm Phase ($7,500): Questions concerning events up to the start of the 120th Congress on January 3, 2027, with prizes awarded in Q1 2027.
Full-Term Phase ($7,500): Questions concerning events through the presidential inauguration on January 20, 2029, with prizes awarded in Q1 2029.

This tournament will be scored using our usual time-averaged scores. Learn more about forecast scoring.

Question Schedule

The tournament features additional waves of questions following the March 28 launch:

May 1, 2025 - ~13 additional questions
June 1, 2025 - ~11 additional questions

And we will continue adding relevant and timely questions throughout the tournament. Click the ‘Follow’ button to receive notifications.

Check a question’s tags to see whether it counts toward the short- or long-term prize pool.

By participating in this competition you agree to be bound and abide by the Rules for Competitions on Metaculus.

Get started below. Your participation helps build a clearer political future.

Thank you to our partners at nonpartisan watchdog group, Bright Line Watch, for their forecast question contributions. You can find more of their forecast questions here.

POTUS Predictions

Questions